Counter-Strike 2 (CS2) is celebrated not only for its engaging competitive gameplay but also for its robust esports environment. A significant aspect of its appeal is the in-game economy, valued in the billions, primarily driven by players opening cases. This process allows players to invest in the chance of acquiring rare and valuable items.
With the launch of Counter-Strike 2, cases have regained popularity, leading both new and returning players to question whether they are still a wise investment.
Top CS2 Cases: ROI Analysis
If you find it hard to resist the temptation of case openings—despite the unfavorable odds—you should aim to select cases that offer a better return on investment (ROI).
According to the average value of skins within each case, juxtaposed against the combined cost of the case and key, here are the most lucrative CS2 cases to consider as of October 2024:
| Case | Cost (Case + Key) | ROI % |
|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $8.14 (+$2.49) | 70.92% |
| Kilowatt Case | $0.92 (+$2.49) | 70.65% |
| Operation Wildfire Case | $2.76 (+$2.49) | 66.5% |
| Esports Winter 2013 Case | $10.84 (+$2.49) | 65.75% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $15.55 (+$2.49) | 64.58% |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $3.28 (+$2.49) | 62.82% |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | $7.10 (+$2.49) | 62.16% |
| Shadow Case | $1.15 (+$2.49) | 61.91% |
| Prisma Case | $0.80 (+$2.49) | 61.49% |
| Horizon Case | $1.22 (+$2.49) | 60.27% |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $4.62 (+$2.49) | 58.99% |
Even when focusing on these “best”options, you’re likely to lose approximately half of your investment on average when opening cases.
It’s essential to note that there are no guarantees of profitability when it comes to case openings. Your success would depend heavily on sheer luck.
Obtaining Cases in CS2
Players can acquire cases in Counter-Strike 2 through two primary methods: case drops and purchasing cases.
Case Drops
The first method is completely free: simply play the game. Your initial account rank-up each week results in a weekly case drop among your rewards. The cases awarded are randomly selected, with a 99% likelihood of originating from the ‘active drop pool,’ which currently includes cases such as Revolution Case, Recoil Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Snakebite Case, and Fracture Case.
There’s a slim 1% chance of receiving a ‘rare’ case drop, often a more premium option. We’ll discuss case pricing later.
Case drops are awarded upon your first rank-up each week.
Purchasing Cases
The alternative route to obtain cases, especially when you want to open multiple, is through purchasing them. Cases can be bought from the Steam Market or various third-party websites.
Often, third-party sites feature cases at lower prices than the Steam Market, making them ideal for those looking to buy in bulk. Sites like Skinport allow players to buy multiple cases at once.
Once you’ve acquired your cases, they will be instantly available in your inventory for opening. You can select any case to see the possible skins and knives it contains.
Additionally, you can sell cases back on the market if you opt not to open them. Keep in mind a 15% fee on the Steam Market means you’ll only recover a portion of the purchase price unless the case’s value has appreciated.
Opening Cases in CS2
To open cases, you’ll need to have one or more cases and a corresponding key.
Each case requires a specific key for unlocking. However, it’s important to note that keys cannot be refunded or traded on the Steam Market—so only purchase them if you intend to use them.
Prior to opening the case, you will see the potential skins you could receive along with the key’s purchase price.
Cost of CS2 Case Keys
A case key is priced at a flat $2.49, or its equivalent in your local currency. It’s advisable not to purchase keys from the Steam Market as they tend to be more expensive! Instead, acquire them directly through the in-game store.
If you mistakenly buy a key from the Steam Market, it will be tradeable as it predates Valve’s update that rendered keys untradeable. You should list it again on the market to recover your costs.
Odds of Winning from CS2 Cases
Opening cases in hopes of obtaining rare items like covert skins, knives, or gloves involves low odds.
Usually, the items awarded will be ‘Mil-Spec’ (blue rarity), occasionally resulting in a Restricted (purple) or Classified (pink) item. Here’s a breakdown of case odds in CS2:
| Skin Rarity | Non-StatTrak | StatTrak |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 7.99% |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1.59% |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.2% | 0.32% |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 0.064% |
| Rare Special Item (Gold) | 0.26% | 0.026% |
Every item in a case has a 10% chance of being a ‘StatTrak’ variant, which adds a kill counter to the weapon or knife (not applicable to gloves since they can’t be used to eliminate opponents).
Evaluating the Worth of Cases
The statistics reveal that about 95% of cases will yield a Blue or Purple skin, with Blue being far more prevalent. Blue and Purple skins are generally the least expensive, typically worth just a few cents to a few dollars unless they hail from a highly sought-after case.
Considering the total expense of both the case and key, you would generally see a 60-70% monetary loss per case opened. Therefore, if you spent $100 on cases, the expected return would be approximately $30-$40 in value.
While it is conceivable to hit fortune and unbox a valuable Knife right away, odds of such occurrences are slim.
If your objective is to acquire a specific skin or knife, your best option is to purchase directly from the Steam Market or reputable third-party platforms instead of gambling on cases. It will typically be more cost-effective.
Knives in CS2 Cases
The allure of opening cases significantly lies in the possibility of obtaining knives. Statistically, players can expect to receive a knife (or gloves) roughly every 400 cases, with a mere 0.26% chance.
A rare Emerald Butterfly Knife can fetch over $20,000.
It’s crucial to note that not every knife is accessible in every case. For instance, the esteemed Butterfly Knife, which commands top prices, is exclusively available in three distinct cases. Below are popular knives in CS2 along with their respective cases.
Butterfly Knife Availability
- Operation Breakout Case
- Dreams & Nightmares Case
- Operation Riptide Case
Karambit Availability
- Gamma Case
- Gamma 2 Case
- Chroma Case
- Chroma 2 Case
- Chroma 3 Case
- Revolver Case
- Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
- Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
- eSports 2014 Summer Case
- Winter Offensive Weapon Case
- CS:GO Weapon Case 3
- eSports 2013 Winter Case
- CS:GO Weapon Case 2
- eSports 2013 Case
- Operation Bravo Case
- CS:GO Weapon Case
M9 Bayonet Availability
- Gamma Case
- Gamma 2 Case
- Chroma Case
- Chroma 2 Case
- Chroma 3 Case
- Revolver Case
- Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
- Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
- eSports 2014 Summer Case
- Winter Offensive Weapon Case
- CS:GO Weapon Case 3
- eSports 2013 Winter Case
- CS:GO Weapon Case 2
- eSports 2013 Case
- Operation Bravo Case
- CS:GO Weapon Case
Skeleton Knife Availability
- Fracture Case
- Shattered Web Case
Gloves from Pandora’s Box
- Glove Case
- Operation Hydra Case
Vice Gloves Availability
- Clutch Case
- Revolution Case
Kukri Knife Availability
- Kilowatt Case
Most Valuable CS2 Cases
- CS:GO Weapon Case: $116.95
- Operation Bravo Case: $58.12
- eSports 2013 Case: $54.18
- Operation Hydra Case: $23.16
- CS:GO Weapon Case 2: $16.37
- Huntsman Weapon Case: $11.50
- eSports 2013 Winter Case: $11.00
- eSports 2014 Summer Case: $9.77
- CS:GO Weapon Case 3: $8.80
- Operation Breakout Case: $8.19
The priciest CS2 cases are often those that are older, rarer, or discontinued, resulting in limited supply each time one gets opened.
Least Expensive CS2 Cases
- Recoil Case: $0.21
- Snakebite Case: $0.23
- Fracture Case: $0.30
- Revolution Case: $0.40
- Clutch Case: $0.49
- CS20 Case: $0.66
- Prisma Case: $0.85
- Prisma 2 Case: $0.92
- Danger Zone Case: $0.94
- Kilowatt Case: $0.77
The cheaper cases typically feature less desirable skins or have a high supply volume, which diminishes their rarity. These prices fluctuate on the Steam Market, though they generally align with these values as of October 2024.
It’s essential to understand that engaging in case openings is not a profitable venture. Although you might witness friends or popular streamers unbox high-value items, they are likely facing significant losses over the long term due to the number of cases opened.
While stories may circulate of players hitting the jackpot with a knife worth over $150,000, remember that such events are extraordinarily rare, akin to winning the lottery.
As CS2 has taken over from CS:GO, the trend of case openings is expected to rise. However, always adhere to the guiding principle: it’s wiser to purchase the skin you desire directly rather than trying your luck with a case.
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